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Mistral AI says its Small 3 model is a local, open-source alternative to GPT-4o mini - Related to openai, here's, a, mistral, chatgpt

How undesired goals can arise with correct rewards

How undesired goals can arise with correct rewards

Exploring examples of goal misgeneralisation – where an AI system's capabilities generalise but its goal doesn't.

As we build increasingly advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems, we want to make sure they don’t pursue undesired goals. Such behaviour in an AI agent is often the result of specification gaming – exploiting a poor choice of what they are rewarded for. In our latest paper, we explore a more subtle mechanism by which AI systems may unintentionally learn to pursue undesired goals: goal misgeneralisation (GMG).

GMG occurs when a system's capabilities generalise successfully but its goal does not generalise as desired, so the system competently pursues the wrong goal. Crucially, in contrast to specification gaming, GMG can occur even when the AI system is trained with a correct specification.

Our earlier work on cultural transmission led to an example of GMG behaviour that we didn’t design. An agent (the blue blob, below) must navigate around its environment, visiting the coloured spheres in the correct order. During training, there is an “expert” agent (the red blob) that visits the coloured spheres in the correct order. The agent learns that following the red blob is a rewarding strategy.

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OpenAI launches new o3-mini model - here's how free ChatGPT users can try it

OpenAI launches new o3-mini model - here's how free ChatGPT users can try it

On the last day of OpenAI's 12 days of 'shipmas,' the firm unveiled its latest models, o3 and o3-mini, which excel at reasoning and even outperform o1 on a series of benchmarks, including math and science. At launch, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed o3 was slated to drop at the end of January, and today, the firm made good on its promise.

On Friday, OpenAI released its o3-mini model, the most cost-efficient model in OpenAI's reasoning series, to the public. Until now, that series has been comprised of o1 and o1-mini. Like its predecessor, the model is particularly strong in science, math, and coding, .

When o3-mini is selected, it will use medium reasoning effort, which balances speed and accuracy. While the original o1 model still has broader general knowledge than o3-mini, the new model's major advantage is its faster speed and higher performance compared to o1-mini.

When comparing the performance of o3-mini to o1-mini, expert testers found that o3-mini delivered more accurate, reasoned-through, and clearer responses than o1-mini. , they preferred o3-mini responses 56% of the time and observed a 39% reduction in major errors.

Beyond human preference evaluations, in several STEM benchmarks, including the Competition Math (AIME 2024), PhD-level Science Questions (GPQA Diamond), and Competition Code (Codeforces), o3-mini with medium reasoning -- which is what ChatGPT customers will get by default -- outperformed o1-mini.

Also notable is that o3-mini, with high reasoning effort in the benchmarks, came close to o1 performance, sometimes even surpassing it, as seen in the AIME 2024 above and Software Engineering (SWE-bench Verified) benchmarks. The o3-mini model with medium reasoning effort matched o1's performance in the Codeforces benchmark.

OpenAI assessed o3-mini's safety through public release through jailbreak and disallowed content evaluations. The organization found that the model significantly surpasses GPT-4o on the evaluations. OpenAI posted the evaluation results below and also launched an o3-mini System Card, a 37-page PDF that includes the detailed results of the evaluations.

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The o3-mini model will replace o1-mini in the model picker, as it would be useful for the same tasks, except that experience will now be improved with lower latency and higher rate limits. As a paid user, at the time of writing, I did not yet have access to the o3-mini, and am instead still seeing the o1-mini option.

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Mistral AI says its Small 3 model is a local, open-source alternative to GPT-4o mini

Mistral AI says its Small 3 model is a local, open-source alternative to GPT-4o mini

On Thursday, French lab Mistral AI launched Small 3, which the organization calls "the most efficient model of its category" and says is optimized for latency.

Mistral says Small 3 can compete with Llama [website] 70B and Qwen 32B, among other large models, and it's "an excellent open replacement for opaque proprietary models like GPT4o-mini."

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Like Mistral's other models, the 24B-parameter Small 3 is open-source, released under the Apache [website] license.

Designed for local use, Small 3 provides a base for building reasoning abilities, Mistral says. "Small 3 excels in scenarios where quick, accurate responses are critical," the release continues, noting that the model has fewer layers than comparable models, which helps its speed.

The model achieved more effective than 81% accuracy on the MMLU benchmark test, and was not trained with reinforcement learning (RL) or synthetic data, which Mistral says makes it "earlier in the model production pipeline" than DeepSeek R1.

"Our instruction-tuned model performs competitively with open weight models three times its size and with proprietary GPT4o-mini model across Code, Math, General knowledge and Instruction following benchmarks," the announcement notes.

Using a third-party vendor, Mistral had human evaluators test Small 3 with more than 1,000 coding and generalist prompts. A majority of testers preferred Small 3 to Gemma-2 27B and [website] 32B, but numbers were more evenly split when Small 3 went up against [website] 70B and GPT-4o mini. Mistral acknowledged the discrepancies in human judgment that make this test differ from standardized public benchmarks.

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Mistral recommends Small 3 for building customer-facing virtual assistants, especially for quick-turnaround needs like fraud detection in financial services, legal advice, and healthcare, because it can be fine-tuned to create "highly accurate subject matter experts," .

Small 3 can also be used for robotics and manufacturing and may be ideal for "hobbyists and organizations handling sensitive or proprietary information," since it can be run on a MacBook with a minimum of 32GB RAM.

Mistral teased that we can expect more models of varying sizes "with boosted reasoning capabilities in the coming weeks." You can access Small 3 on HuggingFace here.

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Market Impact Analysis

Market Growth Trend

2018201920202021202220232024
23.1%27.8%29.2%32.4%34.2%35.2%35.6%
23.1%27.8%29.2%32.4%34.2%35.2%35.6% 2018201920202021202220232024

Quarterly Growth Rate

Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
32.5% 34.8% 36.2% 35.6%
32.5% Q1 34.8% Q2 36.2% Q3 35.6% Q4

Market Segments and Growth Drivers

Segment Market Share Growth Rate
Machine Learning29%38.4%
Computer Vision18%35.7%
Natural Language Processing24%41.5%
Robotics15%22.3%
Other AI Technologies14%31.8%
Machine Learning29.0%Computer Vision18.0%Natural Language Processing24.0%Robotics15.0%Other AI Technologies14.0%

Technology Maturity Curve

Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:

Innovation Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity AI/ML Blockchain VR/AR Cloud Mobile

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Company Market Share
Google AI18.3%
Microsoft AI15.7%
IBM Watson11.2%
Amazon AI9.8%
OpenAI8.4%

Future Outlook and Predictions

The Mini Model Undesired landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:

Year-by-Year Technology Evolution

Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:

2024Early adopters begin implementing specialized solutions with measurable results
2025Industry standards emerging to facilitate broader adoption and integration
2026Mainstream adoption begins as technical barriers are addressed
2027Integration with adjacent technologies creates new capabilities
2028Business models transform as capabilities mature
2029Technology becomes embedded in core infrastructure and processes
2030New paradigms emerge as the technology reaches full maturity

Technology Maturity Curve

Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:

Time / Development Stage Adoption / Maturity Innovation Early Adoption Growth Maturity Decline/Legacy Emerging Tech Current Focus Established Tech Mature Solutions (Interactive diagram available in full report)

Innovation Trigger

  • Generative AI for specialized domains
  • Blockchain for supply chain verification

Peak of Inflated Expectations

  • Digital twins for business processes
  • Quantum-resistant cryptography

Trough of Disillusionment

  • Consumer AR/VR applications
  • General-purpose blockchain

Slope of Enlightenment

  • AI-driven analytics
  • Edge computing

Plateau of Productivity

  • Cloud infrastructure
  • Mobile applications

Technology Evolution Timeline

1-2 Years
  • Improved generative models
  • specialized AI applications
3-5 Years
  • AI-human collaboration systems
  • multimodal AI platforms
5+ Years
  • General AI capabilities
  • AI-driven scientific breakthroughs

Expert Perspectives

Leading experts in the ai tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:

"The next frontier is AI systems that can reason across modalities and domains with minimal human guidance."

— AI Researcher

"Organizations that develop effective AI governance frameworks will gain competitive advantage."

— Industry Analyst

"The AI talent gap remains a critical barrier to implementation for most enterprises."

— Chief AI Officer

Areas of Expert Consensus

  • Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
  • Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
  • Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
  • Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development

Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)

In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing ai tech challenges:

  • Improved generative models
  • specialized AI applications
  • enhanced AI ethics frameworks

These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.

Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)

As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:

  • AI-human collaboration systems
  • multimodal AI platforms
  • democratized AI development

This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.

Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)

Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:

  • General AI capabilities
  • AI-driven scientific breakthroughs
  • new computing paradigms

These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.

Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties

Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of ai tech evolution:

Ethical concerns about AI decision-making
Data privacy regulations
Algorithm bias

Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.

Alternative Future Scenarios

The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario

Responsible AI driving innovation while minimizing societal disruption

Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.

Probability: 25-30%

Base Case Scenario

Incremental adoption with mixed societal impacts and ongoing ethical challenges

Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.

Probability: 50-60%

Conservative Scenario

Technical and ethical barriers creating significant implementation challenges

Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.

Probability: 15-20%

Scenario Comparison Matrix

FactorOptimisticBase CaseConservative
Implementation TimelineAcceleratedSteadyDelayed
Market AdoptionWidespreadSelectiveLimited
Technology EvolutionRapidProgressiveIncremental
Regulatory EnvironmentSupportiveBalancedRestrictive
Business ImpactTransformativeSignificantModest

Transformational Impact

Redefinition of knowledge work, automation of creative processes. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.

The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.

Implementation Challenges

Ethical concerns, computing resource limitations, talent shortages. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.

Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.

Key Innovations to Watch

Multimodal learning, resource-efficient AI, transparent decision systems. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.

Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.

Technical Glossary

Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.

Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.

Filter by difficulty:

platform intermediate

algorithm Platforms provide standardized environments that reduce development complexity and enable ecosystem growth through shared functionality and integration capabilities.

synthetic data intermediate

interface

reinforcement learning intermediate

platform