Tesla Elon Self: Latest Updates and Analysis
Elon Musk: Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving in Austin as paid service in June
Elon Musk presented today that Tesla will launch “unsupervised full self-driving in Austin as a paid service” in June.
It’s a similar claim that he previously made with a few more details.
During the earnings call following the release of Tesla’s Q4 2024 results today, CEO Elon Musk noted:
Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.
It is actually in line with what he introduced during Tesla’s previous earnings call when he claimed Tesla will “launch unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas in Q2.”.
Later in today’s call, Musk was asked about California, and he added:
I predict Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD in California later this year, as well as in many other regions of the US.
But the comments about the launch in Austin were more interesting.
First off, he mentioned Austin rather than Texas. Secondly, he unveiled “as a paid service” rather than on the customer fleet, which is what has been promised since 2016.
That would point to Tesla launching a geofenced autonomous ride-hailing service with teleoperation in Austin, which is precisely what Waymo has been offering for years in several cities.
Musk also reiterated that Tesla will not offer unsupervised self-driving until its system is “much safer than human drivers.”.
Tesla’s head of FSD, Ashok Elluswamy, previously stated that the goal should be for Tesla to achieve miles between necessary disengagement equivalent to human miles driven between collisions, which NHTSA puts at 670,000 miles.
The latest data points to Tesla being at less than 500 miles between necessary disengagement.
I was watching the stock price as Elon started talking to see how it would respond to what he was saying and when he made the comment about unsupervised self-driving in Austin in June, the stock price jumped:
That’s how you know how dumb the market is regarding self-driving because Elon only downgraded is previous statement.
He confirmed that it will be a geofenced service that is not linked to the customer fleet. He is basically talking about launching a Waymo competitor years behind them.
In the meantime, he is hoping that people forget about his promises that all customer vehicles built since 2016 are capable of full self-driving.
Today’s Green Deals are headlined by Lectric’s Valentine’s Day sale that is running through February 15 with up to $654 bundles accompanying the lineu......
Elon Musk finally admits that Tesla will have to replace its HW3 self-driving computers. He expressed it would be difficult, but Tesla would do it.
Tesla guides return to growth thanks to cheaper new models and self-driving
With the release of its financial results today, Tesla is guiding a return to growth in 2025 thanks to new models and self-driving.
After market close today, Tesla released its Q4 2024 financial results, and it missed Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings per share.
The stock dropped 5% on the news, but it quickly regained, and it is now up 4% – seemingly on Tesla painting a pretty outlook for 2025.
Vehicle deliveries are down, income from operations is down -20%, and EPS is down 153% (122% non-GAAP).
It was objectively a bad year, yet Tesla’s stock is up 112% over the last 12 months.
Most of that has been attributed to shareholders trusting Elon Musk that Tesla will finally deliver its unsupervised self-driving this year and the CEO’s link to President Trump leading to presumed help in getting regulations out of Tesla’s way.
In its shareholders deck today, Tesla noted that it plans a return to growth in 2025 thanks to new models and autonomy:
With the advancements in vehicle autonomy and the introduction of new products, we expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025.
The “new products” are the previously revealed Model 3/Y based vehicles that are expected to be in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. They are expected to be unveiled soon as Tesla is still guiding a start of production in the first half of 2025.
Many people are still confused as to why we haven’t seen these vehicles yet, considering how soon they are supposed to be in production, but these are expected to very closesly resemble Model 3/Y and therefore, they might be hard to differentiate.
During the last earnings call, CEO Elon Musk showcased he sees Tesla achieving 20-30% growth in 2025.
This time, Tesla is not putting any number on its anticipated return to growth in its automotive business and it linked the growth rate to the following:
The rate of growth will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment. We expect energy storage deployments to grow at least 50% year-over-year in 2025.
Musk also linked his last growth prediction to Tesla advancing autonomy. His latest prediction, for what it is worth considering his track record, is that Tesla will finally deliver its unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas around Q2 2025.
Virtually every expert disagree with this and Tesla never shared any data suggesting that this is a possibility.
In fact, crowdsourced data about Tesla’s FSD program points to the firm being years away from achieving its goal.
To be fair, I do believe that more affordable Tesla models are coming. However, I have doubts about how much they can contribute to Tesla’s growth. I anticipate significant canabilization of the Model 3 and Model Y programs.
I also have concerns about how smooth the production ramp will go after Tesla lost a lot a talent over the last year.
As for autonomy, I don’t think I need to get too much into it. Elon’s track record on it talks for itself.
How far can an EV drift? Porsche proved it can be pretty far. Porsche’s all-electric Taycan set a new Guinness World Record for the longest drift by a......
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has revealed a target of 700 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of total installed battery storage ca......
Leading today’s Green Deals is the $200 off launch deal on Aiper’s latest Surfer S2 Solar Pool Skimmer that comes upgraded with a bunch of new feature......
Tesla CFO, chairwoman, and Elon’s brother sold tens of millions worth of TSLA stock
Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer, Taneja Vaibhav, and the head of Tesla’s board of directors, Robyn Denholm, have just sold tens of millions of dollars worth of Tesla (TSLA) stock.
Public companies must investigation insider stock trading by critical executives and board members to the SEC.
For Tesla, it’s a very limited group for a business of that size:
And they are not buying the stock. In fact, they are almost exclusively selling.
Today, Tesla reported two new sets of transactions in SEC filings.
Chief Financial Officer Taneja Vaibhav confirmed that he sold 7,000 shares for $2,681,770.
He was able to acquire those 7,000 Tesla shares at $[website] as part of his stock option plan. He sold at an average of $383, and the stock closed at $374 today.
Robyn Denholm, Tesla’s chairwoman, sold 112,390 shares at an average price of $[website], for a total value of $43,162,[website].
She also got the shares as part of a stock option plan. Denholm had to return tens of millions of dollars worth of Tesla stocks to the business after settling a lawsuit over excessive compensation brought by shareholders.
Tesla’s entire board settled for nearly $1 billion:
Tesla wrote in the filings that both Vaibhav and Denholm sold as part of stock option liquidation plans adopted last year.
Today, Tesla released another SEC filing to disclose that Kimbal Musk, Elon Musk’s brother and Tesla board member who also was part of the excessive compensation settlement, is selling 75,000 Tesla shares through Morgan Stanley for $[website] million.
In his case, it doesn’t appear to be linked to a liquidation plan.
Kimbal is known to have great “timing” with his Tesla stock sales. It will be interesting to see.
It’s wild to see these board members getting absurdly rich while the business has erased its growth and is heading into one of its worst quarters in years.
All while they sit on their hands and do nothing while they are the only ones who could do something about the CEO, who seemingly engages in fireable offenses every day.
Tesla has one of the worst corporate governance of any major companies I’ve ever witnessed.
Elon Musk's foray into politics has made him far more unpopular with Democrats.
He's particularly turning off the buyers who say they're most likely ......
After a record-breaking year for electric vehicles, automakers are kicking off 2025 with significant discounts. With leases starting under $300 a mont......
The Candela P-12 is the first hydrofoil electric ferry in the world to begin commercial operations. The 30-seat electric ferry uses a set of computer-......
Market Impact Analysis
Market Growth Trend
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
Quarterly Growth Rate
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
Market Segments and Growth Drivers
| Segment | Market Share | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Connected Cars | 35% | 14.2% |
| Autonomous Driving | 22% | 18.5% |
| EV Technology | 28% | 21.9% |
| Telematics | 10% | 9.7% |
| Other Automotive Tech | 5% | 6.3% |
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Company | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Tesla | 16.9% |
| Waymo | 12.3% |
| NVIDIA DRIVE | 10.7% |
| Bosch | 9.5% |
| Continental | 7.8% |
Future Outlook and Predictions
The Tesla Elon Self landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:
Year-by-Year Technology Evolution
Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:
Innovation Trigger
- Generative AI for specialized domains
- Blockchain for supply chain verification
Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Digital twins for business processes
- Quantum-resistant cryptography
Trough of Disillusionment
- Consumer AR/VR applications
- General-purpose blockchain
Slope of Enlightenment
- AI-driven analytics
- Edge computing
Plateau of Productivity
- Cloud infrastructure
- Mobile applications
Technology Evolution Timeline
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
Expert Perspectives
Leading experts in the automotive tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:
"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."
— Industry Expert
"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."
— Technology Analyst
"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."
— Research Director
Areas of Expert Consensus
- Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
- Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
- Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
- Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development
Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)
In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing automotive tech challenges:
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.
Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)
As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.
Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)
Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.
Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties
Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of automotive tech evolution:
Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.
Alternative Future Scenarios
The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario
Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact
Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.
Probability: 25-30%
Base Case Scenario
Measured implementation with incremental improvements
Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.
Probability: 50-60%
Conservative Scenario
Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption
Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.
Probability: 15-20%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Factor | Optimistic | Base Case | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation Timeline | Accelerated | Steady | Delayed |
| Market Adoption | Widespread | Selective | Limited |
| Technology Evolution | Rapid | Progressive | Incremental |
| Regulatory Environment | Supportive | Balanced | Restrictive |
| Business Impact | Transformative | Significant | Modest |
Transformational Impact
Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.
The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.
Implementation Challenges
Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.
Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.
Key Innovations to Watch
Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.
Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.
Technical Glossary
Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.
Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.
platform intermediate
electric vehicle intermediate
Related Articles
