Here’s why Rivian’s (RIVN) stock is down today even after its big Q4 milestone - Related to why, even, licence, loses, is
Here’s why Rivian’s (RIVN) stock is down today even after its big Q4 milestone
Rivian (RIVN) shares hit a new yearly low on Monday, dropping nearly 10%. Despite achieving its first gross profit in Q4, Rivian’s stock is taking a beating due to mixed analyst opinions. Here’s what they’re saying.
Last week, Rivian released its fourth quarter 2024 earnings, announcing a gross profit of $170 million. Although still a relatively small number, it’s a massive $776 million improvement from Q4 2023 and Rivian’s first positive gross profit.
After shutting down its manufacturing plant in Normal, IL, last April for upgrades and launching its second-generation R1 vehicles, CEO RJ Scaringe stated the firm is seeing “meaningful” cost reductions.
“This quarter, we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023,” Scaringe explained last week after releasing fourth-quarter earnings.
Rivian built 49,476 vehicles last year and delivered 51,579. In 2025, the corporation expects slightly fewer deliveries, projecting between 46,000 and 51,000 due to external factors, including changing government policies. It also expects lower EDV deliveries for Amazon after higher output in Q4.
Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Full-Year 2024 2025 guidance Deliveries 13,588 13,790 10,018 14,183 51,579 46,000 – 51,000 Production 13,980 9,612 13,157 12,727 49,476 N/A Rivian EV deliveries and production by quarter in 2024.
Some Wall St analysts are also concerned about policy changes under the Trump Administration. On Monday, Bank of America analysts downgraded Rivian stock to an Underperform rating from Neutral following its Q4 results.
The analysts also cut Rivian’s stock price target to $10 from $13, saying the 2025 delivery forecast was “softer than expected” and “there could be more downside risk if policy changes are enacted.”.
Rivian stock hit with a downgrade after Q4 earnings.
Bank of America warned that new competition from Lucid (LCID), GM’s Chevy, and VW’s Scout could impact sales projections over the next few years.
Meanwhile, the memo did say Rivian is still “one of the most viable” EV startups and the joint venture with Volkswagen is “complicating earnings forecasts for at least the next four years” for forecasting. Rivian finalized its EV joint venture with VW in the fourth quarter, worth up to $[website] billion, of which Rivian will get $[website] billion over the next few years.
Part of Rivian’s lower 2025 delivery forecast is due to plant upgrades coming at the end of the year for its more affordable R2 SUV. Starting at $45,000, the R2 will be nearly half the cost of the current R1S and R1T.
Rivian plans to begin R2 production early next year in Normal but expects output to significantly ramp up at its new EV plant in Georgia.
Despite closing on its loan agreement for the US DOE for up to $[website] billion last month, the funding is up in the air with Trump threatening to freeze federal loans.
“Given the Trump Administration’s focus on cost-cutting, we believe there could be a risk to RIVN’s $[website] billion Department of Energy loan closed by the Biden Administration on Jan 16,” Bank of America analysts stated.
Despite the downgrade, several analysts upgraded the stock. Needham raised its price target from $14 to $17, while Wells Fargo bumped theirs up to $14 from $11 with an “Equal-Weight” rating.
Rivian’s stock was down over 8% on Monday following the downgrade. At around $[website], however, Rivian shares are still up 11% over the past year.
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Tesla driver instantly loses licence doing 92km/h in school zone
A Queensland man has lost his licence for six months and been fined more than $1800 after driving at 92km/h in a school zone.
On Wednesday, February 19, Queensland Police Service officers detected a Tesla Model Y allegedly travelling at 92km/h through a 40km/h signposted school zone in Southport.
As he exceeded the speed limit by more than 40km/h – the highest bracket available – the 38-year-old man was fined $1854, hit with eight demerit points and had his licence suspended for six months on the spot.
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The road in question has a 40km/h speed limit from 7am-9am and 2pm-4pm on school days, with the police car’s camera showing it was just before 8:30am when the offence was committed.
“School zones exist for one crucial reason—to keep our children safe,” showcased QPS Road Policing and Regional Support Command, Chief Superintendent Garrath Channells.
“Driving at these extreme speeds near children is inexcusable and will not be tolerated by police.
“Speeding reduces reaction time and makes it harder to stop quickly if a child crosses the road while entering or leaving school.
“We must all play our part in protecting the most vulnerable road people, especially our children.”.
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Market Impact Analysis
Market Growth Trend
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
Quarterly Growth Rate
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
Market Segments and Growth Drivers
| Segment | Market Share | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Connected Cars | 35% | 14.2% |
| Autonomous Driving | 22% | 18.5% |
| EV Technology | 28% | 21.9% |
| Telematics | 10% | 9.7% |
| Other Automotive Tech | 5% | 6.3% |
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Company | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Tesla | 16.9% |
| Waymo | 12.3% |
| NVIDIA DRIVE | 10.7% |
| Bosch | 9.5% |
| Continental | 7.8% |
Future Outlook and Predictions
The Here Rivian Rivn landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:
Year-by-Year Technology Evolution
Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:
Innovation Trigger
- Generative AI for specialized domains
- Blockchain for supply chain verification
Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Digital twins for business processes
- Quantum-resistant cryptography
Trough of Disillusionment
- Consumer AR/VR applications
- General-purpose blockchain
Slope of Enlightenment
- AI-driven analytics
- Edge computing
Plateau of Productivity
- Cloud infrastructure
- Mobile applications
Technology Evolution Timeline
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
Expert Perspectives
Leading experts in the automotive tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:
"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."
— Industry Expert
"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."
— Technology Analyst
"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."
— Research Director
Areas of Expert Consensus
- Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
- Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
- Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
- Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development
Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)
In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing automotive tech challenges:
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.
Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)
As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.
Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)
Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.
Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties
Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of automotive tech evolution:
Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.
Alternative Future Scenarios
The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario
Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact
Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.
Probability: 25-30%
Base Case Scenario
Measured implementation with incremental improvements
Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.
Probability: 50-60%
Conservative Scenario
Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption
Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.
Probability: 15-20%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Factor | Optimistic | Base Case | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation Timeline | Accelerated | Steady | Delayed |
| Market Adoption | Widespread | Selective | Limited |
| Technology Evolution | Rapid | Progressive | Incremental |
| Regulatory Environment | Supportive | Balanced | Restrictive |
| Business Impact | Transformative | Significant | Modest |
Transformational Impact
Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.
The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.
Implementation Challenges
Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.
Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.
Key Innovations to Watch
Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.
Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.
Technical Glossary
Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.
Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.
electric vehicle intermediate
platform intermediate
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