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Bikes Electric China: Latest Updates and Analysis

China urges citizens to trade in ‘old lithium e-bikes’ for newer lead acid electric bikes

China urges citizens to trade in ‘old lithium e-bikes’ for newer lead acid electric bikes

In what might seem like a headscratcher, China is now urging its citizens to trade in their lithium-ion battery-based electric bikes for newer models with sealed lead-acid batteries (SLAs).

Electric bicycles are an incredibly popular form of travel in urban areas in China. An estimated 350 million electric two-wheelers of various forms travel the roads and bike paths in China.

Most e-bikes in China look more like what we would call scooters or mopeds, and many families as well as young adults rely on these e-bikes for daily transportation. While they technically require pedals and a maximum speed of 25 km/h ([website] mph) to qualify as e-bikes in China, most clients remove the pedals and effectively operate them as scooters.

SLA batteries, usually in the form of Absorbed Glass Mat (AGM) SLAs, have been commonly used in electric bicycles in China for decades. In fact, the technology for lead-acid batteries is over 100 years old, and early electric cars sold at the start of the 1900s were powered by lead-acid batteries.

Over the last decade or so, China has seen a shift from older AGM batteries, which are heavy and bulky, toward lighter and longer-lasting lithium-ion batteries.

However, safety concerns regarding rare yet dangerous lithium-ion battery fires have put a pause on that proliferation. The government instituted new safety standards for lithium-ion batteries in e-bikes last year, but there’s also been a major pushback toward AGM batteries for the domestic market. Even major technological leaders in the industry, such as Yadea and NIU, produce many AGM-based e-bikes for the domestic market while exporting primarily lithium-ion battery e-bikes abroad.

Now we’re seeing China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) announcing new policies to further promote trade-ins of lithium-ion battery e-bikes for AGM models. The new MOC policy includes subsidies to help individuals buy eligible new models.

Traded-in e-bikes will be sent for dismantling and recycling, a move the MOC says is intended to help phase out older electric bikes with safety risks.

While sealed lead acid-based batteries do have higher safety margins, they have significantly lower energy density and lifespans. To help solve this issue, some companies, such as Yadea, are pushing for sodium-ion batteries to replace both lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries as the next big e-bike battery chemistry.

Sodium-ion batteries have the safety advantages of lead-acid batteries, yet offer more effective energy density and lifespans that are beginning to approach that of lithium-ion batteries. The cost remains relatively high for the newer sodium-ion battery technology, but significant investments in the development of sodium-ion battery manufacturing are expected to help reduce the cost in the next few years.

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UK backtracks on plans to double the power of electric bikes

UK backtracks on plans to double the power of electric bikes

If it sounded too good to be true, that’s because it was. A proposal made last year to double the allowable power limit of electric bicycles in the UK was canceled after pushback on the plan.

Current laws in the UK are similar to those throughout most of Europe, limiting electric bicycles to 250 watts (1/3 hp) and 25 km/h ([website] mph) of top speed.

A proposal put forth by the Conservatives would have seen that power limit doubled to 500W in the UK, and potentially also allowed for the use of a hand throttle, .

After the Department for Transport began a public consultation to assess public opinion, it became clear that while the general public had mixed feelings, most bicycling organizations were largely in favor of keeping the existing regulations unchanged.

“While the difference between the overall number of respondents being in favour and those not in favour was relatively small, this was not the case with main stakeholder organisations, with the vast majority opposing the proposals,” the Department for Transport explained.

While European electric bicycle laws are relatively strict, limiting electric bicycle motors to less power than a healthy adult can generate with their own legs, North American e-bike laws are generally less restrictive.

In Canada, electric bicycles can support up to 500W of power and feature hand throttles that allow the e-bikes to be powered even without pedaling. In the US, the vast majority of states have adopted the three-class system, which allows all electric bicycles to support motors of up to 750W of power, or three times the European limit. Hand throttles are also allowed on some electric bikes, but the specifics can vary from state to state. The subject of speed, as well as hand throttles on e-bikes, has become a contentious subject in the US with increased regulatory activity.

In much of Europe, bicycles and e-bikes are seen as more integrated members of the larger public transportation system. In North America, cities are much more car-centric and often even hostile to cyclists.

While not all European cyclists enjoy the utopia of Amsterdam’s bicycle-friendly streets, most European cities are more likely to feature superior-developed cycling infrastructure that lets cyclists safely travel at slower speeds. Conversely, many American riders feel that higher speeds and motor power levels are essential for their safety when sharing the roads with cars, as higher performance allows riders to superior pace existing vehicle traffic.

Regulations don’t just dictate how powerful an e-bike can be, but rather they can also shape how e-bikes are used in daily life. In Europe, where most e-bikes are capped at 250W and 25 km/h (15 mph), more emphasis is placed on pedal-assisted cycling, encouraging active riding while offering a boost for longer trips.

Many cities in Europe have extensive bike lane networks that accommodate e-bikes alongside traditional bicycles, reinforcing the idea that e-bikes are simply a modernized version of cycling rather than a separate vehicle class.

In North America, where 750W e-bikes are common and Class 3 e-bikes can reach 28 mph (45 km/h), the riding experience can sometimes be closer to that of a moped. While many riders enjoy this broader freedom, it has caused friction in many cities who seek to rein in higher performance electric bikes.

At the same time, higher power limits and throttle-assist functions can make e-bikes more attractive for recreational riders, commuters, and even delivery workers, especially in cities where bike lanes are scarce. This has contributed to a wider diversity of e-bike styles in North America, from fat-tire adventure bikes to powerful cargo e-bikes capable of carrying heavier loads.

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How much will the new Trump tariffs on China increase electric bike prices?

How much will the new Trump tariffs on China increase electric bike prices?

With the flick of a Sharpie marker, new tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China were imposed this morning and will take effect next week on February 4, 2025. , the tariffs are intended “to protect Americans”, though nearly all economists agree that they will result in higher prices for consumer goods and increased inflation, devaluing the US dollar.

The Trump Administration’s new 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico are larger than the 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods, but the latter will have the biggest impact on the electric bicycle industry in the US.

Electric bicycles have grown in popularity among Americans over the last decade, offering an accessible and affordable alternative to cars and public transportation. They’ve also proven popular among recreational riders and those seeking the fun of fitness on an e-bike, which can be more enjoyable and last longer than leg-powered rides alone.

But now the US electric bike industry is bracing for potential price increases following President Trump’s new executive order imposing a 10% tariff on US imports from China. With the majority of electric bicycles and their components manufactured in China, the tariff is expected to impact both retailers and consumers, adding further strain to an industry still facing the cascading challenges of supply chain frustrations followed by overstock issues.

Most electric bicycles sold in the US are produced in China.

China dominates global e-bike production, supplying a significant portion of the US market with both complete electric bicycles and key components like motors, batteries, and controllers.

Industry estimates suggest that over 90% of e-bikes sold in the US are either fully assembled in China or contain Chinese-made parts, making them particularly vulnerable to new trade restrictions.

With an additional 10% import tariff coming into effect soon, US e-bike brands will either need to absorb the extra cost or pass it on to consumers, potentially leading to price increases across many popular models.

Make no mistake – these tariffs are not paid by Chinese exporters of electric bikes, but rather by the American companies that import them. That directly increases the cost of goods for US e-bike retailers, which usually results in increased prices.

Tariffs placed on Chinese goods, including electric bikes, are not a new phenomenon. The US e-bike industry has been navigating these tariffs since Trump’s first presidency, with those tariffs largely continuining throughout the Biden Administration from 2021 to 2025 as well, despite periods of tariff exemptions coming and going.

In the past few years, we’ve seen cases of the additional cost being passed on to consumers, but on rare occasions, we’ve also seen e-bike companies opt to absorb the increased cost and avoid raising prices.

With so much experience navigating the choppy waters of China tariffs over the last few years, many US e-bike companies have taken steps to mitigate the impact of new rounds of tariffs like these. Several major brands have been working to diversify their supply chains, moving production to other countries such as Taiwan, Cambodia, Vietnam, and other areas with favorable economic conditions or incentives.

However, shifting away from China is neither quick nor easy, as the country remains a dominant producer with established manufacturing infrastructure. E-bike importers will likely also consider applying for tariff exemptions, as was the case under previous trade restrictions. However, this is a complex and uncertain process, with no guarantees of whether or how long such exemptions could be granted.

The US has seen rapid growth in e-bike adoption, with many cities and states launching incentive programs to encourage e-bike use as a sustainable transportation alternative. Price increases caused by tariffs could slow adoption, particularly among budget-conscious consumers who rely on e-bikes as an affordable commuting solution.

As the new tariffs take effect, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers will surely be watching closely to see how the industry responds. Some companies may adjust pricing strategies, shift production, or lobby for relief, while consumers may face difficult choices between absorbing higher costs or delaying purchases.

The long-term impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, but for now, one thing is clear: some e-bikes in the US are about to get more expensive.

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Market Impact Analysis

Market Growth Trend

2018201920202021202220232024
8.3%10.0%10.5%11.6%12.3%12.7%12.8%
8.3%10.0%10.5%11.6%12.3%12.7%12.8% 2018201920202021202220232024

Quarterly Growth Rate

Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
10.9% 11.7% 12.4% 12.8%
10.9% Q1 11.7% Q2 12.4% Q3 12.8% Q4

Market Segments and Growth Drivers

Segment Market Share Growth Rate
Connected Cars35%14.2%
Autonomous Driving22%18.5%
EV Technology28%21.9%
Telematics10%9.7%
Other Automotive Tech5%6.3%
Connected Cars35.0%Autonomous Driving22.0%EV Technology28.0%Telematics10.0%Other Automotive Tech5.0%

Technology Maturity Curve

Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:

Innovation Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity AI/ML Blockchain VR/AR Cloud Mobile

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Company Market Share
Tesla16.9%
Waymo12.3%
NVIDIA DRIVE10.7%
Bosch9.5%
Continental7.8%

Future Outlook and Predictions

The Bikes Electric China landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:

Year-by-Year Technology Evolution

Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:

2024Early adopters begin implementing specialized solutions with measurable results
2025Industry standards emerging to facilitate broader adoption and integration
2026Mainstream adoption begins as technical barriers are addressed
2027Integration with adjacent technologies creates new capabilities
2028Business models transform as capabilities mature
2029Technology becomes embedded in core infrastructure and processes
2030New paradigms emerge as the technology reaches full maturity

Technology Maturity Curve

Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:

Time / Development Stage Adoption / Maturity Innovation Early Adoption Growth Maturity Decline/Legacy Emerging Tech Current Focus Established Tech Mature Solutions (Interactive diagram available in full report)

Innovation Trigger

  • Generative AI for specialized domains
  • Blockchain for supply chain verification

Peak of Inflated Expectations

  • Digital twins for business processes
  • Quantum-resistant cryptography

Trough of Disillusionment

  • Consumer AR/VR applications
  • General-purpose blockchain

Slope of Enlightenment

  • AI-driven analytics
  • Edge computing

Plateau of Productivity

  • Cloud infrastructure
  • Mobile applications

Technology Evolution Timeline

1-2 Years
  • Technology adoption accelerating across industries
  • digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
3-5 Years
  • Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
  • new digital business models emerging
5+ Years
  • Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
  • emergence of new technology paradigms

Expert Perspectives

Leading experts in the automotive tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:

"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."

— Industry Expert

"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."

— Technology Analyst

"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."

— Research Director

Areas of Expert Consensus

  • Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
  • Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
  • Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
  • Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development

Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)

In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing automotive tech challenges:

  • Technology adoption accelerating across industries
  • digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream

These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.

Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)

As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:

  • Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
  • new digital business models emerging

This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.

Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)

Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:

  • Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
  • emergence of new technology paradigms

These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.

Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties

Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of automotive tech evolution:

Regulatory approval delays
Battery technology limitations
Consumer trust issues

Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.

Alternative Future Scenarios

The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario

Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact

Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.

Probability: 25-30%

Base Case Scenario

Measured implementation with incremental improvements

Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.

Probability: 50-60%

Conservative Scenario

Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption

Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.

Probability: 15-20%

Scenario Comparison Matrix

FactorOptimisticBase CaseConservative
Implementation TimelineAcceleratedSteadyDelayed
Market AdoptionWidespreadSelectiveLimited
Technology EvolutionRapidProgressiveIncremental
Regulatory EnvironmentSupportiveBalancedRestrictive
Business ImpactTransformativeSignificantModest

Transformational Impact

Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.

The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.

Implementation Challenges

Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.

Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.

Key Innovations to Watch

Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.

Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.

Technical Glossary

Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.

Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.

Filter by difficulty:

API beginner

algorithm APIs serve as the connective tissue in modern software architectures, enabling different applications and services to communicate and share data according to defined protocols and data formats.
API concept visualizationHow APIs enable communication between different software systems
Example: Cloud service providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure offer extensive APIs that allow organizations to programmatically provision and manage infrastructure and services.

hybrid intermediate

interface

platform intermediate

platform Platforms provide standardized environments that reduce development complexity and enable ecosystem growth through shared functionality and integration capabilities.