Tesla Elon Musk: Latest Updates and Analysis
Elon Musk says that Tesla ‘unsupervised self-driving begins’, but don’t get too excited
Elon Musk says that Tesla’s “unsupervised self-driving begins,” but as usual with the CEO’s statements about self-driving, it’s just “corporate puffery.”.
Tesla has released a video showcasing that its vehicles coming out of Fremont factory can now drive themselves to the loading docks for transportation:
Teslas now drive themselves from their birthplace at the factory to their designated loading dock lanes without human intervention.
One step closer to large-scale unsupervised FSD [website] — Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) January 29, 2025.
I’m not gonna lie. I don’t want to hate on this because I think it is pretty cool. It’s just not what was promised for years.
Literally, Elon Musk mentioned that Tesla would do a driverless cross-country drive by the end of 2018. It never happened. Then he mentioned that by the end of every year since 2020, Tesla would enable unsupervised self-driving in Tesla vehicles. That also never happened.
And now, he retweeted the above video, claiming that “unsupervised self-driving begins.”.
The Tesla vehicles in this video drive [website] miles on private roads at low speeds around the factory. This is nothing more than what Tesla demonstrated on the private roads of the Warner Bros studio with the Robotaxi last year.
This is clearly not the “beginning of unsupervised self-driving” or at least, not in the way that Musk has promised Tesla FSD owners for years.
Musk’s latest timeline is “unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas around Q2 2025.”.
Again, I think this is cool. It is a fun and efficient way to transport vehicles to the loading docks, but that’s about it.
Anyone who has used FSD should know that this is not more impressive than FSD, and FSD is still years away from being ready to be unsupervised.
I strongly believe that if FSD was developed in a vacuum without Elon’s comments and Tesla selling it as a package with future upgrades, people would celebrate FSD has a great program. Instead, it’s becoming a joke.
You have Elon claiming that this is the “beginning of unsupervised self-driving” and Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of FSD, added: “just a matter of time before it’s rolling on public roads.”.
Yes, a matter of time. A long time while you sell this package to people promising it will happen by the end of the year.
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Elon Musk: Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving in Austin as paid service in June
Elon Musk unveiled today that Tesla will launch “unsupervised full self-driving in Austin as a paid service” in June.
It’s a similar claim that he previously made with a few more details.
During the earnings call following the release of Tesla’s Q4 2024 results today, CEO Elon Musk expressed:
Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.
It is actually in line with what he noted during Tesla’s previous earnings call when he claimed Tesla will “launch unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas in Q2.”.
Later in today’s call, Musk was asked about California, and he added:
I predict Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD in California later this year, as well as in many other regions of the US.
But the comments about the launch in Austin were more interesting.
First off, he mentioned Austin rather than Texas. Secondly, he stated “as a paid service” rather than on the customer fleet, which is what has been promised since 2016.
That would point to Tesla launching a geofenced autonomous ride-hailing service with teleoperation in Austin, which is precisely what Waymo has been offering for years in several cities.
Musk also reiterated that Tesla will not offer unsupervised self-driving until its system is “much safer than human drivers.”.
Tesla’s head of FSD, Ashok Elluswamy, previously noted that the goal should be for Tesla to achieve miles between necessary disengagement equivalent to human miles driven between collisions, which NHTSA puts at 670,000 miles.
The latest data points to Tesla being at less than 500 miles between necessary disengagement.
I was watching the stock price as Elon started talking to see how it would respond to what he was saying and when he made the comment about unsupervised self-driving in Austin in June, the stock price jumped:
That’s how you know how dumb the market is regarding self-driving because Elon only downgraded is previous statement.
He confirmed that it will be a geofenced service that is not linked to the customer fleet. He is basically talking about launching a Waymo competitor years behind them.
In the meantime, he is hoping that people forget about his promises that all customer vehicles built since 2016 are capable of full self-driving.
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Tesla brings new discount to China amid demand slump
Tesla has implemented a new discount on Model 3 vehicles in China, the world’s biggest EV market, amid a worldwide demand slump for the automaker.
We reported that Tesla’s sales in Europe were cut in half in January compared to last year, despite last year already being down.
With sales stagnating in the US and going down in Europe, Tesla has been increasingly relying on China, the world’s biggest EV market.
Tesla slightly increased sales in the market last year, but it has been using discounts. Chinese automakers warned of another EV price war in 2025 and Tesla is now already implementing discounts.
The automaker introduced a new RMB 8,000 ($1,100 USD) insurance subsidy on new Model 3 orders:
This comes after a small price increase on the Model 3 last month, but this discount completely negates it.
The incentive can be applied on top of Tesla’s subsidized 0% financing rate. It is not applied to Model Y, but that’s because Tesla introduced the new version of the vehicle last month, and production is limited for the foreseeable future.
Tesla is now advertising consumers in China can buy a Model 3 for a down payment as low as RMB 79,900 (~$11,000 USD) and monthly payments as low as RMB 2,460 (~$338).
China is always an crucial market for Tesla, but it is especially crucial right now because it leads the transition to the new Model Y.
The upcoming extended factory shutdown for the Chinese New Year is going to limit Tesla’s production, which was already going to be down due to the transition to the new Model Y.
Tesla is likely betting on the already-upgraded Model 3 to compensate, but it looks like it is having some issues if it is implementing more discounts.
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Market Impact Analysis
Market Growth Trend
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
Quarterly Growth Rate
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
Market Segments and Growth Drivers
| Segment | Market Share | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Connected Cars | 35% | 14.2% |
| Autonomous Driving | 22% | 18.5% |
| EV Technology | 28% | 21.9% |
| Telematics | 10% | 9.7% |
| Other Automotive Tech | 5% | 6.3% |
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Company | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Tesla | 16.9% |
| Waymo | 12.3% |
| NVIDIA DRIVE | 10.7% |
| Bosch | 9.5% |
| Continental | 7.8% |
Future Outlook and Predictions
The Tesla Elon Musk landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:
Year-by-Year Technology Evolution
Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:
Innovation Trigger
- Generative AI for specialized domains
- Blockchain for supply chain verification
Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Digital twins for business processes
- Quantum-resistant cryptography
Trough of Disillusionment
- Consumer AR/VR applications
- General-purpose blockchain
Slope of Enlightenment
- AI-driven analytics
- Edge computing
Plateau of Productivity
- Cloud infrastructure
- Mobile applications
Technology Evolution Timeline
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
Expert Perspectives
Leading experts in the automotive tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:
"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."
— Industry Expert
"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."
— Technology Analyst
"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."
— Research Director
Areas of Expert Consensus
- Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
- Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
- Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
- Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development
Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)
In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing automotive tech challenges:
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.
Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)
As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.
Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)
Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.
Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties
Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of automotive tech evolution:
Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.
Alternative Future Scenarios
The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario
Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact
Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.
Probability: 25-30%
Base Case Scenario
Measured implementation with incremental improvements
Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.
Probability: 50-60%
Conservative Scenario
Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption
Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.
Probability: 15-20%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Factor | Optimistic | Base Case | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation Timeline | Accelerated | Steady | Delayed |
| Market Adoption | Widespread | Selective | Limited |
| Technology Evolution | Rapid | Progressive | Incremental |
| Regulatory Environment | Supportive | Balanced | Restrictive |
| Business Impact | Transformative | Significant | Modest |
Transformational Impact
Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.
The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.
Implementation Challenges
Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.
Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.
Key Innovations to Watch
Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.
Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.
Technical Glossary
Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.
Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.
platform intermediate
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