Tesla opens Cybertruck leases, offers free wraps on tough to move Foundation Series trucks - Related to ix,, offers, won’t, make, us’
Podcast: Tesla earnings were wild, new BMW iX, some EVs won’t make it to the US, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla’s wild Q4 earnings, a new BMW iX, some EVs not making it to the US, and more.
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 [website] ET (or the video after 5 [website] ET):
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Tesla’s sales drop double digits in the US’ biggest EV market, while others are growing
Tesla’s sales have dropped by double digits in California, the most significant EV market in the US, all while the rest of the EV market is growing.
California is the biggest market for electric vehicles in the US and by a wide margin. In fact, if it wasn’t for California, the US would be even further lagging behind the rest of the world in EV adoption.
For years, Tesla has been dominating the market.
While its market shares of the California EV market has been going down with competition, Tesla was still able grow its volumes in California as EV adoption is taking a hold of the market.
The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has released its Q4 2024 study and Tesla saw its first annual drop in sales:
Tesla saw its deliveries go down [website] with almost 27,000 fewer electric vehicles delivered. The automaker market share of the California EV market went down from 60% in 2023, but it still hold a majority at [website].
Despite the market leader shrinking in 2024, EVs still manage to grow in California by just [website].
If you remove Tesla from the equation, the California EV market (excluding Tesla) grew 20% in 2024.
EV market shares now sit at 22% in the state:
CNCDA commented on Tesla’s performance in the state:
Things aren’t looking so golden for EV automaker Tesla in the Golden State. Tesla’s dominance in the electric vehicle market continues to falter as the brand reported its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Tesla’s registrations fell [website] percent in Q4 2024, contributing to an overall [website] percent decline in 2024. The organization’s market share also dropped by [website] points in 2024, now holding [website] percent of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) market for the year. Amongst all brands, Tesla’s share of California’s market is [website] percent, down from 13 percent in 2023.
The results are indicative of Tesla’s broader performance in 2024. The firm had its first annual delivery volume decline in a decade.
California is the most key EV market in the US and it might become even more key if the federal tax credit goes away.
The state stated that it would compensate the difference in incentives at the state level to keep EV adoption going.
Tesla’s sales decline started in 2024, but that was even before Tesla CEO Elon Musk saw his reputation drop even more since Trump’s inauguration. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see sales, especially in California, crash even more in 2025. What do you think? let us know in the comment section below.
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Tesla opens Cybertruck leases, offers free wraps on tough to move Foundation Series trucks
Tesla has opened up Cybertruck leases in the US, and it is now offering free wraps, worth $6,000, on Foundation Series Cybertrucks, which Tesla is still stuck with.
The Cybertruck wasn’t mentioned once during Tesla’s last earnings call. CEO Elon Musk gave a long speech about the current state of the corporation and its future, and yet, he didn’t mention Tesla’s only new vehicle launched in the last 5 years.
That’s because the program has been quite disappointing.
Tesla had over 1 million reservations for the electric pickup truck and Musk unveiled that it could see Tesla selling 500,000 units per year. Tesla built the capacity at Gigafactory Texas for a planned production of 250,000 units per year.
Yet, Tesla worked through its entire reservation backlog by selling fewer than 40,000 units, and now it is having problems selling what it currently has in inventory.
The automaker offered discounts, referral incentives, and free Supercharging for life to try to move the truck.
Now, Tesla has introduced that it is launching Cybertruck leases in the US starting at $750 per month:
Leases are less profitable than outright purchases, so Tesla generally waits until demand is down before introducing them to new vehicles.
There are a few other things that could help the Cybertruck in 2025.
The electric pickup truck has become eligible for the federal tax credit. Tesla is also planning to release the cheaper RWD version of the Cyhbertruck later this year, which could increase demand, but it’s unclear by as much.
Tesla is also giving $1,000 off on the Cybertruck through its referral program.
But despite all these incentives, Tesla is having issues moving the Cybertruck. The automaker is still stuck with some Foundation Series Cybertrucks, and it revealed this weekend that it is even offering free wraps to those buying inventory Foundation Series Cybertrucks.
That’s worth more than $6,000 in some cases.
We previously reported that Tesla even buffed out the Foundation Series badges on some Cybertrucks to sell them as regular trucks because it was having issues selling the more expensive and .
Despite all these incentives, Tesla can’t move the Cybertruck. I am curious to see how many Tesla will be able to sell in 2025.
I’ve seen estimates as low as 30,000 units, which would be even lower than last year.
There are some at 100,000 units, and while I would not have doubted 6 months ago, now I think that’s high.
There’s plenty of room to start thinking of the Cybertruck vehicle program as a failure compared to Tesla’s planned production capacity. If Tesla would have worked on a more conventional electric pickup as well as cheaper EVs, I think it would be in a much more effective situation today.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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Market Impact Analysis
Market Growth Trend
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
Quarterly Growth Rate
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
Market Segments and Growth Drivers
| Segment | Market Share | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Connected Cars | 35% | 14.2% |
| Autonomous Driving | 22% | 18.5% |
| EV Technology | 28% | 21.9% |
| Telematics | 10% | 9.7% |
| Other Automotive Tech | 5% | 6.3% |
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Company | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Tesla | 16.9% |
| Waymo | 12.3% |
| NVIDIA DRIVE | 10.7% |
| Bosch | 9.5% |
| Continental | 7.8% |
Future Outlook and Predictions
The Tesla Podcast Earnings landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:
Year-by-Year Technology Evolution
Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:
Innovation Trigger
- Generative AI for specialized domains
- Blockchain for supply chain verification
Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Digital twins for business processes
- Quantum-resistant cryptography
Trough of Disillusionment
- Consumer AR/VR applications
- General-purpose blockchain
Slope of Enlightenment
- AI-driven analytics
- Edge computing
Plateau of Productivity
- Cloud infrastructure
- Mobile applications
Technology Evolution Timeline
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
Expert Perspectives
Leading experts in the automotive tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:
"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."
— Industry Expert
"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."
— Technology Analyst
"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."
— Research Director
Areas of Expert Consensus
- Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
- Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
- Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
- Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development
Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)
In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing automotive tech challenges:
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.
Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)
As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.
Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)
Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.
Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties
Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of automotive tech evolution:
Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.
Alternative Future Scenarios
The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario
Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact
Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.
Probability: 25-30%
Base Case Scenario
Measured implementation with incremental improvements
Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.
Probability: 50-60%
Conservative Scenario
Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption
Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.
Probability: 15-20%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Factor | Optimistic | Base Case | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation Timeline | Accelerated | Steady | Delayed |
| Market Adoption | Widespread | Selective | Limited |
| Technology Evolution | Rapid | Progressive | Incremental |
| Regulatory Environment | Supportive | Balanced | Restrictive |
| Business Impact | Transformative | Significant | Modest |
Transformational Impact
Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.
The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.
Implementation Challenges
Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.
Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.
Key Innovations to Watch
Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.
Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.
Technical Glossary
Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.
Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.
electric vehicle intermediate
platform intermediate
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