Sam Altman says AI is progressing faster than Moore’s law as he predicts AGI is ‘coming into view’, and it's leaving me worried about the future - Related to ‘coming, it's, scalpers, future, outsmarts
Handful of users claim new Nvidia GPUs are melting power cables again
Here we (maybe) go again: Reports from a handful of early adopters of Nvidia's new GeForce RTX 5090 graphics card are reporting that their power cables are melting (so far, there's at least one research on YouTube and. One on Reddit, as ). This recalls a similar situation from early in the RTX 4090's life cycle, when power connectors were melting and even catching fire, damaging the GPUs and power supplies.
After much investigation and many guesses from Nvidia and other testers, the 4090's power connector issues ended up being blamed on what was essentially user error; the 12VHPWR connectors were not being inserted all the way into the socket on the GPU or were being bent in a way that created stress on the connection, which caused the connectors to run hot and eventually burst into flames.
The PCI-SIG. The standards body responsible for the design of the new connector, claimed that the design of the 12VHPWR connector itself was sound and that any problems with it should be attributed to the manufacturers implementing the standard. Partly in response to the 4090 issues, the 12VHPWR connector was replaced by an updated standard called 12V-2x6, which uses the same cables and is pin-compatible with 12VHPWR. But which tweaked the connector to ensure that power is only actually delivered if the connectors are firmly seated. The RTX 50-series cards use the 12V-2x6 connector.
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Sam Altman says AI is progressing faster than Moore’s law as he predicts AGI is ‘coming into view’, and it's leaving me worried about the future
Moore’s law, named after Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, states that the number of components on a single chip doubles every two years at minimal cost. It’s not exactly hard science, but his simple observation of how rapidly chip technology was progressing back in 1965, has proved to be pretty useful for predicting where technology will be in the years to come.
In his latest blog post, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. Makers of ChatGPT, just stated that ‘ Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger. ‘ Altman was referring to the massive price drop we've seen for AI usage. For developers, this is measured in token cost, and the token cost to use AI has been falling about 10x every 12 months. Between early 2023 to mid-2024, the price per token for using ChatGPT has dropped about 150x.
Technically. Altman got it wrong by writing “18 months” instead of “about two years”. The 18 months figure is a common misquote since there was a separate prediction by Moore’s colleague, Intel Executive David House that Moore’s Law would mean that chip performance would double every 18 months. With no increase in power consumption. So, a forgivable slip.
However, Altman’s point is that the falling cost of using AI is another indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is “coming into view”. AGI is an artificial intelligence that is on a par with, or smarter than, human intelligence, and developing it is the whole reason that companies like OpenAI exist because the benefits of AGI could be truly world-changing, despite the dangers that we keep getting warned about.
It’s worth reading the whole of Sam Altman's blog post because it very much reads like a warning that the future is coming sooner than we think and. That we really start to need to prepare for how the world is going to change. Altman’s predictions are certainly mind-blowing. His three key predictions for the immediate future are:
Scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today.
Moving to another aspect, the price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically.
The price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically.
Altman doesn’t predict these changes happening in 2025, but since he’s already gone on record saying that humanity will achieve AGI this year, the changes would appear to be right around the corner.
His message is also that we have some tough choices coming up regarding AGI and how freely it should be used, because one possible future. “we can see is AI being used by authoritarian governments to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy.”.
In Altman’s vision, ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed is critical to prevent this from happening.
He ends with a quite astonishing prediction: “Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.”.
It’s hard to know how to process the breadth of Altman’s vision right now. Companies like OpenAI are committed to developing AGI, but the dangers inherent in who controls this technology are something that Altman is urging us to start considering and talking about right now.
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Zotac outsmarts scalpers by selling GPUs directly to gamers
Zotac is taking a bold step to combat GPU scalping by selling its latest RTX 50-series graphics cards including the RTX 5090 and. RTX 5080 directly to gamers through its official gaming Discord server. This initiative is an attempt to ensure that genuine end-individuals have a fair chance to purchase the latest GPUs at MSRP (Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price) without interference from scalpers and bots.
To qualify, individuals must actively engage in the Zotac Discord community by participating in discussions. Events, and challenges. Winners are then selected using a random number generator, ensuring a transparent process. Currently, the program is limited to individuals in the , and while a limited number of RTX 5080 units are available. The RTX 5090 is not yet in stock.
Zotac has also implemented strict anti-scalping measures to prevent reselling. All GPUs sold through this program have their serial numbers recorded, and any user caught attempting to resell their GPU risks being permanently banned from future Zotac raffles and. Direct sales events. This zero-tolerance policy reinforces Zotac’s commitment to prioritizing real gamers over resellers.
Scalping has been a significant issue in the PC hardware market, especially new GPUs. With many high-demand products being hoarded and resold at inflated prices. By offering direct sales to active community members, Zotac is not only making it harder for scalpers but also rewarding its loyal clients with an .
While it remains to be seen how effective this strategy will be in the long run. Zotac’s approach sets an critical precedent for the industry. If successful, it could encourage other manufacturers to adopt similar measures to ensure gamers, not scalpers, get their hands on the latest hardware.
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We’ve expressed it before and. We’ll say it again: you can never have enough storage space. Extra SSDs are useful for so many things.
Market Impact Analysis
Market Growth Trend
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
Quarterly Growth Rate
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
Market Segments and Growth Drivers
| Segment | Market Share | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | 35% | 9.3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 29% | 6.2% |
| Enterprise Hardware | 22% | 5.8% |
| Networking Equipment | 9% | 7.9% |
| Other Hardware | 5% | 5.3% |
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity:
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Company | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Apple | 18.7% |
| Samsung | 16.4% |
| Intel | 12.9% |
| NVIDIA | 9.8% |
| AMD | 7.3% |
Future Outlook and Predictions
The Gpus Handful Users landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advancements, changing threat vectors, and shifting business requirements. Based on current trends and expert analyses, we can anticipate several significant developments across different time horizons:
Year-by-Year Technology Evolution
Based on current trajectory and expert analyses, we can project the following development timeline:
Technology Maturity Curve
Different technologies within the ecosystem are at varying stages of maturity, influencing adoption timelines and investment priorities:
Innovation Trigger
- Generative AI for specialized domains
- Blockchain for supply chain verification
Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Digital twins for business processes
- Quantum-resistant cryptography
Trough of Disillusionment
- Consumer AR/VR applications
- General-purpose blockchain
Slope of Enlightenment
- AI-driven analytics
- Edge computing
Plateau of Productivity
- Cloud infrastructure
- Mobile applications
Technology Evolution Timeline
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
Expert Perspectives
Leading experts in the hardware tech sector provide diverse perspectives on how the landscape will evolve over the coming years:
"Technology transformation will continue to accelerate, creating both challenges and opportunities."
— Industry Expert
"Organizations must balance innovation with practical implementation to achieve meaningful results."
— Technology Analyst
"The most successful adopters will focus on business outcomes rather than technology for its own sake."
— Research Director
Areas of Expert Consensus
- Acceleration of Innovation: The pace of technological evolution will continue to increase
- Practical Integration: Focus will shift from proof-of-concept to operational deployment
- Human-Technology Partnership: Most effective implementations will optimize human-machine collaboration
- Regulatory Influence: Regulatory frameworks will increasingly shape technology development
Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Years)
In the immediate future, organizations will focus on implementing and optimizing currently available technologies to address pressing hardware tech challenges:
- Technology adoption accelerating across industries
- digital transformation initiatives becoming mainstream
These developments will be characterized by incremental improvements to existing frameworks rather than revolutionary changes, with emphasis on practical deployment and measurable outcomes.
Mid-Term Outlook (3-5 Years)
As technologies mature and organizations adapt, more substantial transformations will emerge in how security is approached and implemented:
- Significant transformation of business processes through advanced technologies
- new digital business models emerging
This period will see significant changes in security architecture and operational models, with increasing automation and integration between previously siloed security functions. Organizations will shift from reactive to proactive security postures.
Long-Term Outlook (5+ Years)
Looking further ahead, more fundamental shifts will reshape how cybersecurity is conceptualized and implemented across digital ecosystems:
- Fundamental shifts in how technology integrates with business and society
- emergence of new technology paradigms
These long-term developments will likely require significant technical breakthroughs, new regulatory frameworks, and evolution in how organizations approach security as a fundamental business function rather than a technical discipline.
Key Risk Factors and Uncertainties
Several critical factors could significantly impact the trajectory of hardware tech evolution:
Organizations should monitor these factors closely and develop contingency strategies to mitigate potential negative impacts on technology implementation timelines.
Alternative Future Scenarios
The evolution of technology can follow different paths depending on various factors including regulatory developments, investment trends, technological breakthroughs, and market adoption. We analyze three potential scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario
Rapid adoption of advanced technologies with significant business impact
Key Drivers: Supportive regulatory environment, significant research breakthroughs, strong market incentives, and rapid user adoption.
Probability: 25-30%
Base Case Scenario
Measured implementation with incremental improvements
Key Drivers: Balanced regulatory approach, steady technological progress, and selective implementation based on clear ROI.
Probability: 50-60%
Conservative Scenario
Technical and organizational barriers limiting effective adoption
Key Drivers: Restrictive regulations, technical limitations, implementation challenges, and risk-averse organizational cultures.
Probability: 15-20%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Factor | Optimistic | Base Case | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation Timeline | Accelerated | Steady | Delayed |
| Market Adoption | Widespread | Selective | Limited |
| Technology Evolution | Rapid | Progressive | Incremental |
| Regulatory Environment | Supportive | Balanced | Restrictive |
| Business Impact | Transformative | Significant | Modest |
Transformational Impact
Technology becoming increasingly embedded in all aspects of business operations. This evolution will necessitate significant changes in organizational structures, talent development, and strategic planning processes.
The convergence of multiple technological trends—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and ubiquitous connectivity—will create both unprecedented security challenges and innovative defensive capabilities.
Implementation Challenges
Technical complexity and organizational readiness remain key challenges. Organizations will need to develop comprehensive change management strategies to successfully navigate these transitions.
Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around emerging technologies like AI in security applications, will require flexible security architectures that can adapt to evolving compliance requirements.
Key Innovations to Watch
Artificial intelligence, distributed systems, and automation technologies leading innovation. Organizations should monitor these developments closely to maintain competitive advantages and effective security postures.
Strategic investments in research partnerships, technology pilots, and talent development will position forward-thinking organizations to leverage these innovations early in their development cycle.
Technical Glossary
Key technical terms and definitions to help understand the technologies discussed in this article.
Understanding the following technical concepts is essential for grasping the full implications of the security threats and defensive measures discussed in this article. These definitions provide context for both technical and non-technical readers.
RAM intermediate
liquid cooling intermediate
SSD intermediate
platform intermediate
API beginner
How APIs enable communication between different software systemsGPU intermediate
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